The calamity of a collapsing climate

The further from the data, the easier to convince ourselves we are turning the tide on climate change.

But we’re barely in the fight.

Earlier this year, world-renowned conservationist David Attenborough joined the social media platform Instagram on a mission to encourage the world to take serious collective action on unfolding ecological, biodiversity, and climate crises (1,2). All the while, it appears important actors in key political or industry positions are content making insignificantly small steps - superficially appearing responsible, but often undone entirely by harmful activities elsewhere, effectively greenwashing, distracting, and stalling (3,4,6). As a global society we are beginning to re-learn the painful lesson that individualistic self-interested activity enacted at-scale does not amount to the best result for all; a tragedy of the commons.

The false comfort offered by those declaring how much time we still have to act rings empty. Whilst avoidance of climatic catastrophe remains theoretically possible in a physical sense, this closing window of opportunity does not necessarily admit the current inertia present at sociological, cultural, infrastructure, and broad structural levels. As decisive, effective action on emissions is delayed by successive administrations, ‘kicking the can down the road’, the drawdown of emissions necessary to avoid catastrophic warming currently weaved into best-case climate models begins to look increasingly impossible (Figure 1 Andrew, R 2020; and Figure 2 Hausfather 2018).

Emissions budget from IPCC (Andrew, 2020) (18)

Modelling ‘pathways’ (SSPs) for possible futures based on different emissions scenarios (Hausfather and Peters, 2020) (19)

Collectively, we have neither the physical infrastructure nor emotional preparedness to undertake the swift transition to low-carbon living fundamental to avoiding the climatological and sociological feedback loops and so called tipping points that would push us over the edge. Posited in bludgeoningly on-the-nose terms by Roberts (2015), “Is it possible in models? Yes. Is it possible IRL? [in real life]”(7). As action is delayed, global warming progresses and worsens, such that ever more heroic efforts would be required to achieve even modest constraints on temperature increases or to protect remnant ecosystems (8). Each idle moment sees the metaphorical horse bolt further and further into what threatens to become the sunset of our planet.

Perhaps the most devastating characteristic of climate catastrophe is that it does not feel like a climate catastrophe, and is for the most part, something only revealed in data, charts, and graphics - debatably invisible in many ways (13). Shy of witnessing the terminal manifestations of climate disaster, all grim prognostic indicators of impending catastrophe are readily evidenced in crumbling ice sheets, mass coral bleaching, raging wildfires, far-reaching desertification, mass migration, and population displacement.

To understand this challenge we can look at why climate change is characterised as a ‘wicked problem’. That is one of unfathomable complexity, reaching across multiple sectors and industries, across countries and continents, one with no simple nor quick solutions, one not amenable to trial-and-error problem solving, characterised by inherent uncertainty and unknowns, one which is new and unique - without precedent and for which we cannot reason by analogy, one inextricably bound to other issues like ecosystem health, population health, and resource depletion, and one involving a plethora of stakeholders with irreconcilable differences of opinion on what can, or what should be done (9, 10). Further compounding this is the often overlooked challenge of managing simultaneous budgetary demands for climate change mitigation and adaptation alongside the high cost of increasingly frequent natural disasters and extreme weather events (11, 12). Each time a bushfire, flood, or heatwave should impact a community, scarce resources are necessarily diverted to protect life and limb, provide emergency relief, and ultimately rebuild - diminishing the resources that could be committed to climate mitigation and adaptation. This dilemma is not dissimilar to that faced by health systems who balance upstream investment in preventative medicine with downstream investment in emergency care. Buying into upstream care yields returns in preventing disease, but diverts resources that could otherwise treat current cases. This budgetary challenge is well illustrated in the Climate Adaptation webgame created by Miguel Padrinan (2015) <https://www.smhi.se/en/climate/education/adaptation-game-1.153788>, showing the impossible trade-offs that must be made managing a city’s future in the setting of a changing climate.

“The horizon for monetary policy extends out to 2-3 years. For financial stability it is a bit longer, but typically only to the outer boundaries of the credit cycle – about a decade. In other words, once climate change becomes a defining issue for financial stability, it may already be too late.“ - Mark Carney (5)

Effective policy necessitates action on disaster relief alongside adaptation and mitigation directed at the biggest drivers of carbon emissions. In greenwashing and tokenistic climate policy (3,4), the objective reality of rising atmospheric CO2 (14, 15), glacial melting (16), and an escalator of (species) extinction (17) stand as evidence to the contrary, and a testament to the failure of present day interventions.

What we require most is bold and brave leadership alongside financial commitment in both public and private sectors to bring into existence a de-carbonised future that supports human, ecosystem, and planetary health alike.

“Why is climate change faster than we are? The only possible answer is that we still lack strong leadership to take the bold decisions needed to put our economies and societies on the path of low-carbon growth and climate-resilience.” - U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres (20)

T Michniewicz, 23/07/2021

Reference

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